The Atlantic Money Machine
Right now, the US Gulf and South America are the places to be. A Supramax ship there is fixing for around $26,000 per day. Why? Because there is a huge grain season happening in South America and the US is exporting a lot of fuel and coal. There are very few empty ships in that area, so owners are charging a lot of money.
Forecast: This will stay hot for at least another two weeks. If your ship is over there, don’t bring it back to Asia yet!The Indonesian Coal Confusion
Reuters is reporting that some Indonesian miners are stopping “spot” coal exports because the government is proposing output cuts. Also, there are delays in getting mining permits (RKAB) cleared.
Reason: This creates a panic. If Indonesia stops selling spot coal, prices go up and buyers get nervous.
Forecast: We expect Indian buyers to start looking at South Africa or Australia more seriously. This means ships will have to travel longer distances, which eventually helps push freight rates up for everyone.India’s East Coast “Parking Lot”
If you look at the port lineups for Paradip and Dhamra, it looks like a traffic jam. There are many ships discharging coal and steel, but once they finish, they have no export cargo to carry.
Reason: Too many empty ships are fighting for the few Iron Ore cargoes going to China.
Forecast: Rates for exports from East Coast India will stay low (around $9,500) until the backlog of empty ships clears out.India’s West Coast is Much Busier
Kandla and Mundra are looking much healthier. We see ships like the “Sea Falcon” bringing in Timber and others bringing in Fertilizer and Coal.
Reason: The West Coast is better balanced. There aren’t too many empty ships sitting around doing nothing.
Forecast: If you are an owner opening in Singapore, aim for a West Coast India discharge. It pays better and you will find your next job faster.The “Paper Market” is Betting Big
In the shipping world, we look at FFAs (Freight Forward Agreements) to see what traders think will happen in the future. Today, the “Paper” for June 2026 is trading at $16,500. That is $6,000 more than what a ship makes today in Asia!
Reason: Traders are 100% sure that the market will boom in the summer once China is back at full speed and the Red Sea crisis keeps ships taking the long way around Africa.
Forecast: This is a very good sign. It means the “bottom” of the market is over.Red Sea: The New Normal
Almost 90% of dry bulk ships are still avoiding the Suez Canal and sailing around the bottom of Africa (Cape of Good Hope).
Reason: Safety concerns continue. This adds about 15 days to every trip.
Forecast: Because every trip is taking 15 days longer, the world effectively has fewer ships available. This is keeping a “safety net” under freight rates. They won’t crash as long as this continues.Charterers are Getting Nervous
We are seeing big companies lock in ships for 1 whole year at $16,000 per day for Ultramax vessels.
Reason: They are scared. They think if they don’t book now, they might have to pay $25,000 or $30,000 per day in a few months.
Forecast: If you are an owner and you want a peaceful life, take the 1-year deal. It’s a very solid profit.
COMMODITY NEWS & FUTURE FLOW
Coal: Premium Coking Coal from Australia is trading around 235-245 per ton. Since the price is stable, Indian steel mills are comfortable booking more ships for March. If Indonesian coal supply actually drops due to the new regulations, expect a massive rush for Australian coal.
Iron Ore: Chinese steel mills are starting to fire up their furnaces again after the holidays.
Impact on Future Flow: As China ramps up, they will need more high-grade ore. This will finally give the Capesize and Panamax ships in the Pacific something to do, which will lift the Supramax market too.
Steel: India is exporting a lot of steel coils (we see this in the Chennai and Ennore lineups). This is great for Handysize and Supramax ships. As long as Indian steel stays competitive, this “backhaul” trade will keep ships moving from East to West.
WHAT IS COMING IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS?
The “Post-Holiday” Surge: Usually, 14 days after the Lunar New Year, the Pacific market sees a big jump in activity. We are approaching that window now.
Grain Peak: The South American grain season (Soybeans and Corn) hits its peak in March. This will suck even more ships out of the Pacific and into the Atlantic.
Pre-Monsoon Coal Rush: Indian power plants usually start stocking up on coal in late February and March before the rains start. Expect a lot of Indonesian and South African coal enquiries to hit the desks next week.
Tighter Ship Supply: Because of the Red Sea diversions, the ships that left Asia in January are not coming back until late February. We are about to hit a “gap” where there are very few open ships in the Indian Ocean.
Summary: Don’t let the sleepy Pacific rates fool you today. The future looks very bright, especially for March and April. Owners should hold their ground!
Disclaimer :many pros include one stating the info is for informational/educational purposes only, not advice, and sourced from third parties (which may have errors).
Source : Compiled and summarized from various sources.
Abhash Tyagi
Shipbroker
abhashtyagi01@gmail.com
wechat : ATchartering